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Equity and Equanimity




This article is for readers who are invested in the equity market, or who are thinking of making some money out of it. Money is the mean to an end not an end in itself. This ought to be the guiding principle in investing.
I have seen a few cycles of bull and bear market. In the early 90s, there was a super-bull run, whereby the joke was to paste the stock market page on a wall, and then you throw a dart at it. Then you go to the stock market and buy that stock. You will make money. Wasn't that easy? Indeed, few people were seriously working. Most were punting and some did make a killing by getting out early, before it crashed. Many people were hurt, and some swore never to buy into equity again.
The equity market can be indeed a casino during a bull run, where you buy in the morning and sell the next day or so. You do not even have to fork out any money. This is because the brokerage provides a transaction plus a number of days, usually three (T+3) before you settle your purchase. This time gap provides "gamblers" the opportunity to buy low and sell high to make the money. Of course in any casino, the gamblers are usually the one who will lose in the long run. This is the power of greed - to win more and more and more....
Take a look at the graph above of the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI). The general trend is up, and just at the beginning of the year, it was just over 2,000 points. As of today, it is about 3,500 points. It has gone up 75%! Will this up trend continue to rise? How about to 5,000 points at the end of the year? So there is still room to make even more money.
Depending on your risk appetite, you can invest using other people's money. In other words, you borrow to buy. The gain will easily repay the loan, if indeed the STI continues to rise. Mathematically, it seems sound. If you can sleep peacefully at night with a big debt to your name, perhaps you will become rich in a short time.
This is not to say that there is no correction to the trend. Indeed, all fund managers are awaiting a correction. The $64,000 question is when? No one will ever know. The market has recently corrected due to a few events such as the Shanghai market drop, the yen carry trade and of course whenever Federal Reserves gives hint of increasing the interest rate. Only today, the China government has declared that it is raising the tax on share transaction and the result is a slump of 6.5% on the Shanghai Composite Index.
If you have not noticed, the China equity market is so hot that PE (price earning) ratios are as high as fifty times! This means that you are prepare to pay $50 for a share that can only earn $1 per year! It will take you fifty years just to get back your investment. Is this a good value for your money? You will have to decide. Of course, you expect the company to improve its earning to perhaps $10 per year, and then your PE ratio will now be 5, and this will be really cheap.
There are such things as dream in which anything can happen. However, if anything should go against your trading strategy, you may hear the bank knocking at your door. That knock will be real.
If you want equanimity (mental composure even under stress), then you may want to have an equity holding that is based on business fundamentals, such as profitability and sustainable growth, than one based upon empty promises. You can sleep soundly knowing that you are investing for the future rather than trading for the week.
Indeed the wise saying that all that glitters is not gold is true in everything. There is such a thing as luck. However you cannot depend on luck for the very long term. You have to understand what you are doing and control your greed.
Life is not all about money. It is about peace and happiness with your loved ones and friends. Learn to appreciate the word, "enough" and be satisfied by "simplicity" of living. Equanimity will then be part of your outlook.

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